Archive for ‘presidential’

December 13, 2008

I’m a map geek

by thoughtfulconservative

The best way to get my attention is with a map. I explore maps; I pour over maps; I collect maps.

I just love maps.

So here are some electoral maps I’ve run across.

The Washington Independent has a group of maps which answers the question, “What would the 2008 electoral map look like if the election were decided by [Fill In the Blank]”

The Electoral Map uses the first of a series of maps from the New York Times to state that the country is turning blue, but if you use the comparison from ’92 and ’96 we’re turning red. Obviously we’ll have to see what the next couple of elections tell us.

The has a time lapse of when counties were declared one way or the other.

Frontloading HQ has a map of the 2012 projected Electoral College votes.

And last, but not least, Christopher Healey from the Computer Science department at North Carolina State university has a series of maps which subdivides each congressional district into four quadrants and visualizes

“four elections of interest: President (upper-left), U.S. Senate (upper-right), U.S. House (lower-right), and Governor (lower-left).”

In addition,

“saturation [of color] represents the winning percentage (more saturated for higher percentages); the small disc floating over the state shows aggregated state-wide results; incumbent losses are highlighted with textured X’s; the height of the state represents the number of electoral college votes it controls.”


These maps also dispel the notion of Red State-Blue State, for the most part.

November 26, 2008

Youth vote: Democratic movement, or fad?

by thoughtfulconservative

At, Louis Jacobsen’s “Out There” column has this

In a normal election year, the two precincts serving the bulk of students at California University of Pennsylvania attract a total of about 400 voters, according to election watchers here. But on Election Day 2008, that number more than quadrupled to a combined total of more than 1,700. And in those precincts, Obama crushed Republican nominee John McCain by margins of between 2 to1 and 3 to1.


Obama managed to sweep the 18-to-29 vote in some of the most deeply Republican states in the union. They include not just North Dakota but also Alabama (50 percent), Kansas (51), Kentucky (51), Mississippi (56), South Carolina (55), Tennessee (55) and Texas (54).

Should the GOP be worried? Sure. But note,

Overall, the trendlines for young voters do not look good for the GOP. As political journalist Ron Brownstein has noted, 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry carried 54 percent of voters younger than 30. In the 2006 midterms, 60 percent voted Democratic in House races. This year, Obama trounced McCain among voters under 30 by a 2-to-1 margin.

As some contacted by Jacobson admitted, the GOP needs to be concerned that their message is not getting across (or, perhaps, getting lost in the static?) But is this insurmountable? No. He noted these things:

1. Many Republican candidates in red states did well on Election Day. We have no further to look than Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan, whose district went for Obama.

2. State Democratic parties are not always able to take advantage of the opportunities presented to them.

3. Are Democrats winning future loyalists to the party as a whole, or are young newcomers mostly attracted to the new president?

Time will tell.

November 16, 2008

Conservatives and McCain

by thoughtfulconservative

Conservatives had, at best, a rocky coalition with John McCain during the recent campaign and now afterwards, too.

In retrieving an old e-mail account, I found this post at Boots & Sabers and wondered how many of the conservatives who were neutral or against McCain wound up voting for him.

November 6, 2008

Quick Hits

by thoughtfulconservative

Suzie-Q How Many People Voted For Obama?

Overall, that means turnout will be up by about 2% over 2004 levels. But the real story is that while the Democratic vote will have increased by a bit over 10% from 2004, the Republican turnout will have dropped by about 7%. – Obama may win Nebraska’s 2nd District votes. Nebraska, for those who don’t know, allocates their electoral votes by congressional district.

McClatchy Washington Bureau – How will President Obama deploy his Internet army?

Trippi predicted that Obama would use his forces, first and foremost, to intimidate congressional foes of his agenda, rally his allies and forge “one of the most powerful presidencies in American history.” – The next president. Minute by Minute. Seems like overkill to me. For example, the 9:30AM entry for November 6,

Obama heads to gym for 90 minutes.

Oooookay. again – The 2010 campaign is now under way Written by Phil Singer who has worked for Sen. Charles Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Hillary Rodham Clinton and John F. Kerry presidential campaigns, most of this article’s suggestions would work for the GOP also.

Jonathan Martin’s Blog at – Lobbyists in Obamaworld

With the campaign over, lobbyists are out of the dog house and helping with the White House transition team. But they’re also being asked to sign a document pledging to not lobby for one year the department or agency they’re helping to staff, according to Democratic sources.

November 5, 2008


by thoughtfulconservative

I hate to write posts like this; it’s probably one reason I hardly do it.

Peter from Texas Hold ‘Em blog has written some pretty harsh things, both on his blog (which he has deleted) and at Boots & Sabres about the election results. Wendy and Owen both called him on it and perhaps his frustration has led him to delete his blog.

I like Peter. He’s a sharp guy. Unfortunately sometimes that sharpness was hidden by name calling and bitterness.

But hoping this country gets attacked repeatedly and wanting to put a bounty on the head of the president goes way beyond reasonable to me.

Again I like Peter. He has his style of blogging; I have mine. I won’t take him off the blog roll. I don’t blog roll that way.

But I had to write this. And I hope Peter understands.

November 5, 2008

A look back

by thoughtfulconservative

Last night’s election, while disappointing was not the disaster many thought it would be. Democrats are far short of the “super majority,” and didn’t pick up as many in the House as predicted by some. I attribute this to the fact that, although people want change, they don’t want revolution. They are mostly satisfied with their lives, but want some stuff fixed.

McCain lost and he lost by about what pundits predicted. The interesting thing was that it was over before Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina were decided.

So where should the Republican Party go from here?

Many have said that Sarah Palin has the inside track for 2012. Of course many thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in. I like Gov. Palin and believe she would be no worse a candidate than Barack Obama. But four years is a long way off.

President-elect Obama seems to have won by appealing to African-Americans, young people, and Hispanics. It’s also clear that tax cuts as a campaign strategy works about as well as abortion (but note that anti-gay marriage proposals passed in FL and CA; reminds me of two years ago, when the marriage amendment and an opinion question concerning restoring the death penalty passed in a year when Republicans were defeated nationwide).

If Republicans want to win elections, we have to figure out how to appeal to the groups that went big for Obama. We either have to come up with new ideas as Paul Ryan (although like Nick, I am troubled of his support for the bailout) or we have to sell the old ideas better.

I think part of McCain’s failure was not selling the ideas better. He spent too much energy attacking Obama for things that didn’t seem to matter to the electorate. One could argue the reasons why the people didn’t care, but that’s not the purpose of this post.

But, better than coming up with new ideas, I think Republicans have to prove that they are willing to follow those ideas themselves.

The Republican Party has traditionally been the party of small government. The past 8 years were anything but. If we decide we want to continue to be the party of small government, we have to mean it.

I’m not sure that’s what the American people want. They seem to be satisfied with government being involved in areas that Republicans traditionally haven’t been comfortable with. Health care is one area.

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth will follow in the coming days and in fact, has already started. The death of conservatism has already been proclaimed.

We shall see.