Door number 1? Or door number 2?

by thoughtfulconservative

Most every one has heard of Let’s Make a Deal. Perhaps not as many people have heard of Marilyn vos Savant, but she writes a column in Parade magazine that comes as an insert in many Sunday newspapers, called Ask Marilyn. She is famous for having been listed in Guinness World Records Hall of Fame for having the highest IQ.

OK, back in September 1990, there appeared this question,

“Suppose the contestants on a game show are given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. After a contestant picks a door, the host, who knows what’s behind all the doors, opens one of the unchosen doors, which reveals a goat. He then says to the contestant, ‘Do you want to switch to the other unopened door?’ Is it to the contestant’s advantage to make the switch?”

What’s the answer?

Be careful, tons of people, including many math Ph.D. holders got this wrong.

The problem is now referred to as the Monty Hall problem. And is given a prominent spot on her website.

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2 Comments to “Door number 1? Or door number 2?”

  1. Always switch–you’ll win the car twice as often.

  2. Correct, although you wouldn’t think so, off the top of your head.

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