Immigration – the next 50 years

by thoughtfulconservative

The title on the email I received from Pew Hispanic Center made me say, “D’uh”

Immigration to Play Lead Role in U.S Population Growth from 2005 to 2050, Pew Research Study Finds.

If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.

Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren.

Now if they told us how many would be illegal immigrants that might really help, but, alas they don’t. Although they do say,

Births in the United States will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth; as a result, a smaller proportion of both groups will be foreign-born in 2050 than is the case now.

Doesn’t help much, does it? With my interest in finding out how much of this projection will be illegal immigration. So I tried here, specifically this article. It was still hard to find (Try pressing Ctrl-F and Typing “Legal vs. Illegal Immigration”).

[A]ssuming net illegal immigration continues at 450,000 a year, Table 1 [Scroll up the page for this] indicates that it would add 13.4 million to the population by 2030 and 37.9 million by 2060. For legal immigration, one can use the net figure of 800,000 found in the table. Legal immigration of 800,000 a year will add 23.9 and 67.4 million to the population by 2030 and 2060, respectively. Of course, the racial composition of legal and illegal immigration differs somewhat and this matters because birth and death rates vary by race. Thus, dividing up legal and illegal immigration in this way can provide only a rough indication of the impact of the two types of immigration.

Table 4 in the report (Scroll down a bit) gives details for all illegal immigrants remaining, half departing and not returning and all departing and not returning.

One thing you rarely, if ever, see discussed on blogs like The Political Environment and Sprawled Out is the discussion of how immigration enters into urban sprawl. Does it have any effect? Who knows, but these people are going to have to live somewhere.

The other interesting factoid, which doesn’t have any bearing on this post,

The Center’s report includes an analysis of the nation’s future “dependency ratio”–the number of children and elderly compared with the number of working age Americans. There were 59 children and elderly people per 100 adults of working age in 2005. That will rise to 72 dependents per 100 adults of working age in 2050.

So 28% of the population will be working for the other 72% by 2050.

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One Comment to “Immigration – the next 50 years”

  1. Supporters of Immigration Fraud

    An immigration advocacy group called “Civil Society Helps” and attorney Martha J Sullivan help perpetuate fraud against U.S. citizens. See http://www.marthasullivanlaw.com for more information about the immigration fraud these kind of groups help facilitate.

    With false accusations from an immigrant residency seeker, a stable American citizen can be reduced to living in poverty. All of your assets can be seized and given to the residency seeker even if you are not found guilty. You will immediately be forced to surrender a portion of your income to the residency seeker. The courts may order you to turn your motor vehicle over to the residency seeker even if the car is in your name and the residency seeker does not have a drivers license. Your immigrant spouse becomes legal and you become illegal. The court system will abuse you and strip you of your rights while social programs that promote immigration fraud thrive.

    Attorney Martha J. Sullivan – VAWA and Immigration Advocate
    (651) 438-9992
    1317 Vermillion St
    Hastings, MN 55033
    Web: http://www.marthasullivanlaw.com

    Civil Society Helps – Immigration Advocacy Group
    1st National Bank Building
    332 Minnesota St,
    Suite E-1436
    Saint Paul, MN 55101
    Phone: (651) 291-0713
    Fax: (651) 291-2588
    Web: http://civilsocietyhelps.org

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