I don’t usually cheer Hillary Clinton victories, but in this case. There are a couple of reasons for joy.
First, anytime polls are shown to be wrong and pundits are made to look foolish by panting over each one, it just warms my heart. There is entirely too much reliance and horse race (car race in FoxNews’ case) aspects to this race. Tuesday was spent with analyzing Hillary Clinton’s tears.
Who cares? What does she believe? What does she want to do when she gets in office?
How much of that did you hear Tuesday?
Wednesday, the talk was how did the polls go wrong? Even trends and averages got it wrong. Professor Franklin does the best job I’ve seen (with illustrations) of explaining the problems. He shows how Obama’s percentage was right, it was Clinton’s they got wrong. He also shows the Republicans side was a much better result for the polls. He asks a couple of pointed questions,
If the polls were systematically flawed methodologically, then we’d expect similar errors with both parties. … So if the turnout model was bad for the Democrats, why wasn’t it also bad for the Republicans?
Of course, this gets ignored by the media, because they have 30 seconds to two or three minutes tops to explain what’s going on, or viewers eyes will begin to glaze over.
But I still don’t trust polls. My nature, I guess.
In more news among presidential candidates, dad29 links to another interesting piece on the divide between Big Biz Republicans and Mike Huckabee. Bill Richardson, a good man with a lot of experience, but unfortunately still a Democrat, will be withdrawing from the race. Depending on who wins the nomination, Richardson would make a good VP, if he wants it.
Mitt Romney is pulling his ads in SC and FL. Interesting was this opening paragraph,
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has decided to pull his advertising from South Carolina and Florida, in a sign of trouble for a campaign that badly needs a win.
Hold on here. Romney needs a win? Does that imply he has not won yet? Because I seem to remember that he won a small state in the west, lessee, Wyoming, wasn’t it?
Fred Thompson has disappeared. Oh wait, he’s in SC, making his stand. Sen. Thompson should remember that there’s this guy called Mike Huckabee who’s a Southern Baptist pastor, and there’s more Southern Baptists in SC than people. I think it’s do or die for Thompson and Edwards in SC. If they don’t do well (=win), they’re done.