Cause and Effect?

Does this [Emphasis is mine throughout]

Twenty-six percent (26%) of American voters say the nation is moving in the right direction, while 66% say it is heading down the wrong track, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

The number of voters who think America is moving in the right direction is down slightly from last week’s high of 29%, but it marks the third straight week in which over a quarter of voters share that opinion despite increasing bad economic news.

stem from this?

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell to a new record low for the second straight day on Thursday. Just two days after Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s presentation of the White House financial rescue plan, the Consumer Index fell to 56.2, surpassing the all-time low set the day before. During 2008, record lows for consumer confidence were recorded on a regular basis. Consumer confidence is down two points from a week ago and one point from a month ago.

Rasmussen pegs the low to Geithner’s presentation of the rescue plan, but couldn’t it simply be the downturn/recession/depression that’s making folks nervous and causing low approval ratings?

I suppose we won’t know until we start to pull out of this mess.

Waukesha Carnival – Super Bowl XLIII edition

Let’s get right into this week’s Super carnival. As usual, these are my choices, although you are certainly free to put yours in the comments.

Let’s start with posts about what’s going on nationally. At Practically Speaking, Kyle Prast wonders if Republicans will say no to pork. The governors seem to have capitulated with a couple of exceptions.

Tom Gehl also gives us some plain talk on the “stimulus” package over at Brookfield Basics.

In a related story, the Asian Badger has some thoughts on that CITI bank jet.

Silent e speaks and points out a little hypocrisy at the White House.

Cindy Kilkenny had a proposal on “Drill Here, Drill Now” at Fairly Conservative. The expected result?

Tax revenue and a move towards energy independence from one simple decision.

Sounds simple to me. Cindy also thought that long term contracts such as the one Charlie Sykes recently signed should put an end to talk about the Fairness Doctrine. I disagree, but linked because of the discussion generated.

Dad29 gives us a snapshot of an entitlements catastrophe in the wings. And he kicks off the posts on Wisconsin section by helping Judge Koschnick in adding to the list of Abrahamson “activist” decisions.

Sen. Mary Lazich says the taxpayers deserve answers on Wisconsin Shares. You can read her post at Conservatively Speaking.

Rose Fernandez is getting serious about blogging and posts a few questions and answers. She’s blogging at her campaign web site Change DPI.

Over at Wigderson Library & Pub, James Wigderson looks at the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction race and Dr. Van Mobley’s stands of some issues like increasing the sales tax (to offset a cut in property tax).

The best post on Gov. Doyle’s State of the State speech can be found at Spring City Chronicle, where our good friend Huckleberry Dumbell uses the technology of the “internets” and Google Translator to sort it out.

Randy Melchert, whom I’m adding to the blog roll soon, has a report on a pro-life demonstration in Madison and has video.

Within Waukesha County, Jeff at Five Points Blog informs us of a new direction for the blog and the addition of a co-blogger. Since it is now devoted to eating, drinking and recreation in Waukesha, if you would like to blog there, get in touch with him.

Alexander muses over at A Little Off Main about traffic control at five points during special events. While they’re at it, Alexander would like another “five points” intersection looked at.

Mayor Larry Nelson has published another in his series of Mayor’s Memos. Sure looks busy. Maybe he’s trying to convince us he’s worth all that money we’re paying him.

Linda Richter at Inside New Berlin lets us know about some voter forums taking place for various New Berlin offices.

Bryon Houlgrave has several new pictures posted but I liked this one best because it reminds me there are only 11 days until pitchers and catchers report.

James Rowen at The Political Environment congratulates Waukesha for cutting water consumption, but raises a question on the diversion sought.

Darryl Enriquez posted about a fight at the men’s homeless shelter downtown which started quite a discussion in the comments at Waukesha FYI.

The anonymous blogger at Ocono.com seems to object to Huckleberry’s characterization of their fair community in a recent post.

Scott Feldstein shares his frustrations with video news, especially on the CNN.com site.

That’s the end of this week’s super carnival. As always you can leave a comment suggesting a post for this week or next week’s carnival. Or you can e-mail them to me at thoughtfulconservative [at] yahoo [dot] com.

Gannett plans to furlough employees for a week

From the New York Times

The Gannett Company, the nation’s largest newspaper publisher, said on Wednesday that it would force thousands of its employees to take a week off without pay in an effort to avoid layoffs.

This involves about 31,000 employees.

Also on Wednesday, USA Today notified its staff of a one-year pay freeze for all employees.

Most of the readers of this blog know that

With the newspaper industry in increasingly dire financial straits, Gannett’s mandatory week off takes its place in a growing list of grave moves. Layoffs have been widespread, the newspapers in Detroit halted home delivery four days of the week, the Tribune Company filed for bankruptcy protection and owners of The Rocky Mountain News and The Seattle Post-Intelligencer warned that those papers could shut down.

Our local Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has announced a couple of “layoffs” in the recent past (announced as buyouts and early retirements) as well as a price increase for non-subscription newspapers.

What will it be by the time he takes office?

Shoebox @ No Runny Eggs documents the increase of jobs Obama’s stimulus bill is expected to “create.” It’s risen steadily from 2.5 million to 4.1 million.

He’s created 1.6 million jobs before even getting it passed.

Now the work begins

UPDATE: Heh. It happens too often. As soon as I post I run across another article. This guy thinks Obama may not do enough.

We may not simply be facing a steep recession like that of the early 1980s, from which we can extricate ourselves in a year or two, but something resembling the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Ah, not only the “D” word, but preceded by “the Great.” Seeing soup lines? His solution?

It would consist not merely of updating or repairing the nation’s infrastructure, but in undertaking massive new investments that would expand the scope of American industry, and address other urgent problems in the process: global warming, over-reliance on petroleum, and the need to revive America’s domestic manufacturing capabilities–not just to provide jobs, but also to provide tradeable goods that can reduce the country’s current account deficit.

Just like Obama’s “trickle-down” government-financed approach only BIGGER! MORE! The fiscal equivalent of war!

Then in the next three paragraphs, high-speed rail. Yippee! Makes no difference if no one is riding, build it and they will come.

Then he wants some way to smooth out international trade balances.

One more. Tax cuts? No way? James Rowen asked what conservatives would think of Obama’s tax cuts and I countered in the comments, what would the left think.  Now we find out.

President-elect Barack Obama’s proposed tax cuts ran into opposition Thursday from senators in his own party who said they wouldn’t do much to stimulate the economy or create jobs.

We’re in for a long ride, folks.

From Politico.com. Here’s a selection:

“There is nothing written in stone,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D.-Nev.)

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D.-Mont.) said that changes will have to be made to “improve” upon the Obama plan.

“I just don’t think it works. I don’t think that’s going to give much lift to the economy, as well intended as it is,” said Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat. Conrad wants a homebuyer tax credit to help housing prices.

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), an early Obama supporter, was among those pressing for more to be done in the energy field.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) argues for a greater emphasis on tangible infrastructure investments in roads, bridges, transit.

This is Congress. This is deliberation. We can only hope what they come out with works. Since they’re Democrats, I doubt it, but the ball’s in their court.

Waukesha Carnival – Happy New Year

Welcome to the first edition of 2009.

Let’s see which posts made the cut for me.

New Year’s is the time of year when we review stories, check on last year’s predictions and predict for the coming year. James Wigderson does all three in three posts. You can find his prediction results, his look back, and his predictions for the coming year all at Wigderson Library & Pub.

On that theme, at Practically Speaking, Kyle Prast shares what she feels were her best posts of the past year.

Cindy Kilkenny is also reflective of the past accomplishments and future directions over at Fairly Conservative.

Huckleberry Dumbell, publisher, editor and writer at Spring City Chronicle, gives his opinion of what the Packers need.

Food is always popular this time of year and we have Scott Feldstein giving a thumbs-up to downtown Waukesha eating places.

We also have MommaBlogger over at Homemaker’s Guide to the Galaxy, talking about something called Iron Cupcake. No, you’ll have to click the link to find out.

As to that web site for the Wisconsin GAB that has the Minneapolis skyline on it, The Asian Badger says that’s not the real problem.

Tom Gehl at Brookfield Basics reviews the book Flowing Streams by Stuart Briscoe, minister at large, at Elmbrook Church.

Alexander at A little off Main gives us Reason # 247 to love mass transit…

Bryon Houlgrave got up early New Years morning (stayed up late?) to give us Good Morning, 2009.

Trisha (Mrs. silent E) over at DaBubbler reposts an old article entitled The Green Conservative which is still well worth reading. Her blog was formerly named “life artist,” so take note.

Speaking of silent E, he gave a report of the Bloggers Christmas Party at silent E speaks. You can see the predictions they made for the coming year and some pictures at Fred’s place.

Finally, Dad29 comments on one of those little-heard economics items, M1 the multiplier. He’s got a chart, too, and says,

The period from ‘the end of 3.2′ to 2008 was kinda ’sticky-gooey’ economically, come to think of it…

In fact, it looks to me that “the end of 3.2″ corresponds to Alan Greenspan becoming head of the Fed. Coincidence?

That’s it for this week. You can always add your choices in the comments. You can also submit a post for next week’s carnival in the comments also, or you can e-mail them to me at thoughtfulconservative [at] yahoo [dot] com.  Past editions can be found on our here.

Unexpected results of no bonuses

N.Y. will lose $178M from six Goldman bonuses alone

Gov. David Paterson said Friday that the loss of tax revenue from just six Goldman Sachs’ executives will cost New York $178 million.

The executives complied with the urging of New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and others who said in November that major Wall Street companies benefiting from federal bailouts shouldn’t pay out the usual huge bonuses to executives.

Paterson says it is the right thing to do, but the result is a further hit to the fiscal crisis of state government.

Shouldn’t we have figured it out beforehand?

Auto bailout: Will it work?

The $13.4 billion in federal loans announced by President Bush Friday morning should be enough to get the automakers through the next few months. Then the fate of Detroit will become a problem for President-elect Obama and the newly-elected, much more Democratic Congress to tackle.

But this lifeline won’t solve the immediate problems dogging the entire U.S. auto industry. Tight credit and a weakening U.S. economy have left industrywide auto sales at their weakest point in 26 years.

The expected total price for the bailout?

But even then, the $17.4 billion to GM and Chrysler is only about half of the $34 billion the automakers had requested from Congress at the start of this month.

Once the new Congress and administration are in place, it is likely automakers will be back to ask for the rest of that $34 billion, barring a sudden improvement in auto sales that few are forecasting.

And that $34 billion figure doesn’t include $20 billion approved by Congress before the credit crisis to help GM, Chrysler and Ford revamp their plants to produce more fuel efficient vehicles. What’s more, the automakers have already requested that this fund be increased to $50 billion.

Hey, it’s only money.

Bailout payout tops $8 trillion

From Politico.com,

It’s a package of about $8.7 trillion dollars’ worth of potential taxpayer commitments for loans, guarantees and other bailout goodies for businesses and distressed homeowners.

Wow. That’s a lot. But there’s good news,

There is a bright side, sort of. Only about $2.9 trillion of the government money, loans and guarantees have actually been spent or committed.

That’s a relief.

Still lining up

Coming up: A huge pension bailout?

Falling markets and a sour economy have opened a gap of more than $200 billion in the pension plans of S&P 500 companies, including Ford and GM. Will taxpayers get stuck with the bill?

“We’ve got to take care of these people.”

Colin Powell said basically the same (this is a half hour section of the full CNN “GPS” interview–no transcript yet the transcript is here. The quote comes fairly early.), while attempting to explain “Share the wealth.” We have to use the wealth of the country to help those who need help. UPDATE: Here’s the exact quote:

That’s what sharing the wealth also means, not just giving to people who are, you know, not deserving of it. But sharing the wealth through taxes means that you take the wealth of the nation, the wealth of all the people in the nation, and you use it for a common good. And so, in that regard I am probably left-of-center. [Emphasis mine]

UPDATE 2: I should have included this piece also. He names the home building industry, states, newspapers, home owners, things that have been mentioned before.

But there’s this quote,

Investment firm Bridgewater Associates, in a report this week titled “The Shock and Awe That Is Necessary,” estimated that the government would have to boost its spending to 25% of gross domestic product, from about 20% earlier this year and just 18% in 1999, “to offset the collapse in the private economy.” And that would just get the U.S. to a zero growth rate, not back into expansion mode.

“The era of small government is over,” the firm said.[Emphasis mine]

UPDATE 3: OK, here’s another,

With estimates of the package, which will be considered by the new Congress starting in January, topping out at anywhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion, ailing sectors such as home builders and sellers, airlines, railroads — and, yes, the auto industry — view the stimulus as a means to get healthy again.

That includes the air conditioning industry, America’s libraries and even catfish farmers.

All of them, and many more, have deployed lobbyists to Capitol Hill in hope of benefiting from the spending spree.

There follows a litany of industries and their wish lists.

Auto crisis roils state budgets nationwide

An article at CNNMoney details why the auto crisis is so serious.

More than 2 million workers in every state – including Alaska and Hawaii – draw their pay from the auto industry.

And,

Problems in the auto industry are only exacerbating this turmoil. Not only have nearly 800,000 people lost car-related jobs this year, accounting for 40% of the increase in unemployment, but auto sales are at a 26-year low and at least 660 dealerships have closed their doors.

This means state and local governments are collecting less in personal income taxes, corporate business taxes and sales taxes — all critical to funding their operations. State tax revenue fell 2.6%, when adjusted for inflation, in the third quarter, according to preliminary figures from the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

Does this justify a bailout? I’m glad I don’t have to make that decision. I get to catcall from the sidelines.

Bailouts are distasteful to me. It seems to reward poor management. Whom do we bailout? How do we determine which companies are essential? No one pays for my mistakes.

And having the government involved is even more distasteful. Governments do very few things well. But what other entity could do it?

And the fallout. How do we justify that? “Gee, too bad. Happens all the time. Sorry.”

OMG. Am I a Huckabee Republican?

Waukesha Carnival 12-14-2008

It’s been a couple of weeks since my last roundup of significant posts in this section of the Cheddarsphere. First there was Thanksgiving and then a busy weekend, but here we are.

In state politics, Wisconsin state Senator Mary Lazich (chief aide Kevin Fischer?) writing at Conservatively Speaking reminds us of the obvious consequences if the QEO is done away with.

At Fraley’s Daily Takes, Brian Fraley notes the last WisOpinion: The Show for 2008.

In national events, Dad29 finds a state with a budget surplus!

Scott Feldstein is on the other side in the “Christmas Wars.”

The Asian Badger reminds us that you really can find everything on Craig’s List.

Concernedcitizen at Skeptics Anonymous notes that online retailers will be the next to seek a federal bailout and gives anecdotal evidence.

James Wigderson at Wigderson Library & Pub has some questions for the president-elect.

Cindy Kilkenny discusses airport security and specifically the TSA at Fairly Conservative.

Closer to home, Josh at Blog Waukesha gives a personal report on last week’s snow.

Dan Diebert asks why any business would want to go where it’s not wanted and why in this economy a community would want to stop one. You can read it at The D Spot.

In miscellaneous posts, at Spring City Chronicle, Huckleberry Dumbell remembers his Uncle Kelly, who spent his early time in the Navy recovering bodies at Pearl Harbor.

Tom Gehl, writing at Brookfield Basics, recommends a book for getting healthy.

Kyle Prast highly recommends Penzeys. So do I. She has her reasons and some pics at Practically Speaking.

That does it for this week. Tune in again next week for more of the best of Waukesha blogs.

Now they tell us

Panel says US has been in recession since Dec. ‘07

By one benchmark, a recession occurs whenever the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, declines for two consecutive quarters. The GDP turned negative in the July-September quarter of this year, and many economists believe it is falling in the current quarter at an even sharper rate.

But the [National Bureau of Economic Research]’s dating committee uses broader and more precise measures, including employment data. In a news release, the group said its cycle dating committee held a telephone conference call on Friday and made the determination on when the recession began.

The problem is that we don’t know a recession is happening until after it’s begun. Unless you ascrobe to a quote I read last week (where, I don’t know. Sorry) that went something like “You know you’re in a recession when politicians tell you the economy is fundamentally sound.”

Sharing more of the wealth

Share the Wealth V – Facing Shortfalls, States Seek Financial Help From Washington

Share the Wealth VI – New York Budget Gaps Threaten Broader Economy

Share the Wealth VII – Most College Presidents’ Pay Climbing

Share the Wealth VIII – Flush with money, eager Chinese students flock to U.S.

Share the wealth

Share the Wealth I -M&I sells stock to Feds

Share the Wealth II – Rail coalition calls for $1.4 billion in federal stimulus

Share the Wealth III – Source: Paulson Tells Congress Obama Will Control Half of Bailout Funds

Share the Wealth IV – Democrats Draft Aid for Auto Industry, Jobless Workers

Consumers close their wallets – Retailers brace for poor holiday sales.

Treasury bills fall to record lows at auction – Investors flock to the safety of government bills.

Before my left-of-center friends point it out, the Republican administration and Republican controlled Congress were just as involved in sharing the wealth.

Should the federal government bail out the states?

From a NYTimes editorial

If Congress and the White House can bail out bankers and insurance companies and possibly the auto industry, they should be able to help state and local governments, too. The aid could be temporary, the way it has been during past recessions. And it should come after cities and states have downsized to the essentials.

The rub comes in defining those “essentials.”

Modern economic glossary

Dad29 pointed us to this post of definitions for common popular economic terms. Here are a couple to whet your appetite (There are more at the link).

Bailout: A process by which your money is given to someone else in order to save them from financial collapse.

Rescue: Very much like a Bailout with the important exception that it is called a rescue.

The Free Market: An economic model in which the government gives people free stuff.
Supply and Demand: A theory of economics in which the demand for government money and the supply of campaign contributions reaches a natural equilibrium and in so doing optimizes the chance of an incumbent politician being reelected.

Financial round-up

US government may take part ownership in banks – Yahoo! News

An administration official, who spoke late Tuesday on condition of anonymity because no decision has been made, said the $700 billion rescue package passed by Congress last week allows the Treasury Department to inject fresh capital into financial institutions and get ownership shares in return. [Emphasis mine]

The nationalization of the banking industry has begun. I liked CNNMoney’s headline,

Paulson ‘actively’ eyes bank investment – Oct. 9, 2008

He’s probably got enough money on his own, but I think they’re talking about my money and he’s just deciding how to spend it.

You know it’s been a bad time when someone writes,

Something didn’t happen Thursday morning, and that’s the best news we’ve had in more than a week.

It’s not just the U.S.,

Iceland suspends stock trading, creates new bank

Global Financial Crisis Hits South Korea

Oil Exporters Feel Squeeze of Falling Crude

We’re even taking a hard new look at a Greenspan Legacy.

The problem is not that the contracts failed, [Greenspan] says. Rather, the people using them got greedy. [Emphasis mine]

Astounding. They pay people for this stuff, too.

The Waukesha Carnival 10/5/2008

Welcome to edition 42 of the carnival. For the newbies, a carnival is a round-up of blog posts usually with a theme. A list of carnivals can be found at the blog carnival web site. Blog carnivals usually have posts around a thematic or geographic basis.

This one will have to be quick and dirty, because this post is late and it’s getting late.

Scott Berg has a post on Brookfield’s 2009 budget.

The Asian Badger looks at the Senate version (that eventually became law) of the Bailout Recovery Plan.

State Senator Mary Lazich informs us that the state can’t collect on the breaches of privacy in the Social Security mess.

Dad29 gives us more good news (NOT!) on the likelihood of higher electric bills.

Cindy Kilkenny steps aside and lets Son Number 2 speak.

Alexander reported on the last Blog n Grog. I learned more in that short evening than I had in my whole life previously, it seems.

Kyle Prast keys on Democrats charitable donations and their view of the rich paying more taxes.

Along those lines, silent e has some advice for the governator.

Spring City Chronicle has an exclusive drawing of the proposed baseball park at Frame Park. We find that the proposed name is Larry Nelson Stadium.

Yorick’s Persiflage had a look at the Biden-Palin event.

That’s it for this week. Sorry for the bare bones look.

You can always submit something here. or send it to me at thoughtfulconservative [at] yahoo [dot] com. Past posts can be found here.

Where’s my bailout?

Via Yahoo News

Americans’ retirement plans have lost as much as $2 trillion in the past 15 months, Congress’ top budget analyst estimated Tuesday. The upheaval that has engulfed the financial industry and sent the stock market plummeting is devastating workers’ savings, forcing people to hold off on major purchases and consider delaying their retirement, said Peter Orszag, the head of the Congressional Budget Office. [emphasis mine]